The baseline forecast is that the Fed will be on hold over the next six months.
Our proprietary macroeconomic model delivers systematic, data-driven forecasts for U.S. monetary policy and market conditions. Developed over two decades ago and continuously refined, it leverages 30 years of historical data across approximately 50 macroeconomic indicators. Fully machine learning-based, it operates without discretionary input. The model accurately anticipated the Federal Reserve's 2007 rate cuts before futures markets adjusted, demonstrating its predictive power.
The baseline forecast is that the Fed will be on hold over the next six months, with a 50% chance of one rate cut. NFP is expected to print at 49K this Friday and to rise to 150K in six months. Treasury yield curves are expected to steepen. The S&P 500 is forecast to rise 6% over six months.